Anticipate your path to profit

Now that the king of all sports betting is upon us in its ninth week, which is soccer, it’s time to maximize wins and minimize losses for the smart player. As a professional handicapper, it’s not only my job to choose winning picks for my clients, but also to help them maximize their profits on those picks. I have written about the flat betting technique that I use numerous times, which everyone should consider as well, but now we look at our 2 team 6 point teaser insurance policy at 11 to 10 odds in the NFL.

If you look at the average margin of victory in the NFL over the past 12 seasons, you’ll find that number is just over 5 points. Now, one would assume that if you get 6 points a side or total in the NFL, your chances of winning a bet are greatly increased. Any professional handicapper who is given 6 points a side in the NFL can beat you at least 70% of the time, I can assure you. With this mind, ask yourself a question. How many games have you lost against a difference of 1 or 2 points in the last 5 years? I already know the answer. Imagine if you had bet one unit on each of those games with an additional 6 points on a teaser play with odds of 11 to 10! Count the winners guys. It’s a solid backup plan for your weekly picks, on your top two plays, as a backup plan in case you don’t go 2-0 or 1-1. You can either recover some losses or maximize those gains. On my NFL cards every week for my clients, I always have a sneak peek of 2 teams in the NFL. One area I have hit over the years is a home team getting 3+ points. There is parity in the NFL, and every team has a chance to beat another team on any given Sunday. I’ll take a chance on getting 9 points or better on almost any NFL home team.

This rule also applies to College Ball, but I use it almost exclusively in the NFL. Free agency has made the game much more competitive in the last 7 or 8 years. Almost every team has a chance to win every week. Look at the 1999 St. Louis Rams. They were 3-13 ATS in 1998, and then they broke the books in 1999 and won the Super Bowl at odds of 200/1. Free agency played a big part in making that happen, and it goes to show that parity in the NFL is around and rears its ugly head on a weekly basis, even for smart players like me. Baltimore in 2000, Patriots in 2001 and Carolina in 2003 further prove this point of parity and free agency. With the added insurance I get 6 points a side on two teams, I think this backup plan is a worthwhile investment during football season. In the NBA look for 4 point 2 teams on side plays teasers in games where 2 good teams are playing, with a slightly underdog home team adding the 4 points can take you over the top if you find a scenario like this with 2 teams on the board in this position.

The goal of every novice or experienced sports bettor is to make money with their selections. What some of us don’t realize is that we are gambling and nothing is certain, contrary to what you may read or hear in advertisements for sports services. All players want every advantage they can get over the book and adding teaser plays to your arsenal is a good investment to earn 8-10 units a year in your bankroll.