How an Aging Social Impact Calculator Can Help Your Community

Many of our communities have participated in community needs assessments, community health needs assessments, community economic development plans, and ongoing planning for the built environment. All of these planning lenses are useful ways to look at communities and build for the future. One of the most important lenses that will be used for community planning over the next 10-20 years is the projected impact of aging on our communities, counties, and states. What will it mean for a state to go from 39th place in the proportion of older adults in 2010 to fourth place in 2030? What does it mean for a county to have a population change that includes an increase in older adults by more than 100% in the next 10 years, along with a projected reduction in people younger than 40?

Understand the demographic trend

The demographic trend has been given many names, such as “Age Wave” or “Silver Tsunami”, with arguments in meetings and blogs about whether those terms are useful or pejorative, descriptive or discriminatory. Also, some people find the terms “elderly” difficult, while others find “elderly” condescending. Once people have taken care of analyzing the grammar minefield, the most important thing is to understand both the demographic trend and other substantive factors.

Although a few in the field indicate that population aging is quite slow and easily absorbed, the vast majority of experts agree that it is a significant and fast-moving trend that will not be easily absorbed. The research I have conducted has covered everything from future healthcare professional shortages and healthcare system gaps to the built environment, funding, and policy trends. The potential impact of our aging population on communities and states is significant. It will require proactive and sustained responses at the community, state and national levels.

Some communities and states are better positioned to respond to this trend than others.

The impact also depends on a few other key factors

The ability of groups to respond effectively depends on other key factors. Although demographic trends are the main issue, other important factors affecting our responsiveness include the following:

• Community health in general;
• Poverty levels, middle and middle income (especially for the middle-aged and elderly);
• Local municipal budgets, economic qualifications and tax capacity;
• Legislation, policies and financing related to aging and community development;
• Regional infrastructure and built environment.

The impact of the demographic trend is also determined by the state of community and regional planning that already exists to address the impact of aging in our communities. Leadership and citizen participation are also important factors that could help drive and mobilize initiatives. Leaders can and must respond. The problems are complex, but not overwhelming. However, they must be addressed proactively.

How a social calculator can predict the potential impact of aging on communities and states

Many of these factors have been analyzed by our team through a series of aging-related research and planning projects over the past few years. We are now completing a Social Impact on Aging Calculator that can provide an initial analysis of the state and local environment. Examines the key factors that shape the social, economic, and community health of a county or state.

Research projects I have recently completed demonstrate that Social Determinants of Health, health rankings, economic benchmarks, and policy issues help communities and states move forward or serve as additional challenges.

Social determinants. Social Determinants shape us as individuals, families, and communities. They include things like family income, jobs, poverty, and financial assets. Income, assets, poverty, and unemployment have been shown to be some of the most important factors in family and community health, health disparities, and health equity. Race and ethnicity have been considered extremely important by the World Health Organization, US federal government offices, and the health research and funding community. Individual, family and community educational levels are also significant. Taken together or collectively, there are snapshots of the community that reflect the local economy, employment and poverty; racial and ethnic mix; and educational levels. They help predict how our lives will be shaped in the future.

Community and State Health Ratings. Many research groups evaluate communities and states based on their overall health. One of the key national ratings used is the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJ) annual rating. County Health Rankings and Roadmaps. They provide excellent state and county ratings based on an analysis that uses more than a few dozen separate indicators. That classification provides extremely important information to help determine if an area faces significant health inequalities and inequities. Ratings can indicate to planners whether community health challenges will pose additional difficulties that will negatively affect the community’s ability to respond to the aging trend; or whether positive community health will make it easier for communities to implement strategies to respond. These health ratings can help inform plans that address key issues more effectively.

Economic benchmarks. Communities are highly determined by economic trends large and small. Short-term and long-term economic ratings provide a picture of the economic health of the community. Counties and states with strong economic ratings are better able to respond to these challenges than those with a weak economic outlook. Communities facing a loss of employment and capital, and a declining tax base, are not as well positioned to respond to the Age Wave as communities with a different economic landscape.

Other factors that can also help predict the impact of demographic trends include whether or not a region has a net population loss. Areas that are losing population also begin to lose jobs and infrastructure over time, unless this can be proactively addressed.

Laws, policies, legislative initiatives, and funding priorities and strategies can also determine how well a local community or state can respond to this trend. Policies and funding that support economic development, the built environment, and services for older adults provide an environment that facilitates the proactive response of a community or county to this demographic trend.

The power of collective impact

The combined or collective impact of (1) demographic trends, (2) social determinants, (3) health rankings, (4) state and local economies, and (5) policies together shape the sustainability of a region. They can also serve as general predictors of how severely battered a community can be by an aging population. Together, these factors provide a picture of what can happen in communities, counties, and states. They help us understand the current and projected collective impact.

Social impact calculator on aging

The Social Impact on Aging Calculator analyzes states and counties, and provides an initial prediction of the level of impact you can expect from an aging population in your region. Some of the most important benchmarks that make up the predictive image include:

• Demographic factors
• The social determinants of health
• County Health Rating (Health Outcomes and Health Risk Behaviors)
• County economic chart
• Policy and funding framework

Work with a predictor

Any social impact calculator has predictive capabilities. The World Bank, the Low Income Investment Fund, and others have used many inexpensive calculators with success. The one with Robert Wood Johnson County Health Rankings and Roadmaps and state-level health department profiles (such as New Mexico Community snapshots) provide images of community health that capture both the present and the near future. The Senior Social Impact Calculator provides snapshots of the projected impact on a community and the strengths and weaknesses of the community that will affect its responsiveness. It provides a useful picture of state and local capacity, which can help leaders choose priorities that match their responsiveness.

The predictors provide a holistic big picture that can serve as an important starting point for communities and states to respond to the needs of older adults. They serve as general frameworks or roadmaps. Once a predictor profile is developed, community leaders can drill down into the community to:

• Understand and address key issues;
• Choose priorities and create the size and scope of a response that fits the capacity of the community;
• Leverage the strengths and assets of the community;
• Reduce risks;
• Create plans that bring stakeholders together and leverage resources.

Each state and community has its own unique assets that can be used to respond to this problem, which are complex and difficult to measure with a social impact calculator. These include wealthy family and social media, community leaders, volunteers, faith communities, and civic organizations that represent important community assets.

1. The term “Wave of Age” was coined by Ken Dychtwald decades ago to capture the coming demographic trend that was then on the horizon and is now a reality.

2. Social determinants of health were developed by the World Health Organization and used by major institutions (US Department of Health and Human Services, Kaiser Foundation) and key research organizations in the US. To treat community health in a comprehensive way.